Monday, October 12th, 2015
STILL DRY TODAY? SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN, MAINLY EAST
Most areas will remain dry today, but with the slight passage of a small cold front from northwest to southeast across our area this afternoon, a few small showers or storms might be possible. Austin's chances are very slim, with better chances out east and northeast where there is more moisture.
SMALL COLD FRONT, SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE TONIGHT (10-20%)
With the passage of a small front across the area this afternoon and evening, a small chance of rain exists, and the Storm Prediction Center has us under a 10% chance of thunderstorms-as a possibility. Obviously, it isn't a very good chance, but I can't rule it out. Best chances east of I35, and far east of the area--probably closer towards East Texas.
REST OF OUR WEEK:
The warmth continues, but none of our weekdays will be as hot as today (Monday). By next weekend, we could be feeling around normal, which sounds amazing at this point: Saturday and Sunday: mid 80's possible. Better chances of rain starting next week (the week of the 18th).
Tuesday - High 92 Record: 97 (1991)
Wednesday - High: 94 Record: 95 (1948)
Thursday - High: 92 Record: 93 (1962)
Friday - High: 88 Record: 94 (1933)
Saturday/Sunday: Cooler: mid 80's and rain chances increasing Sunday night into the start of the following week.
ANY RAIN AHEAD?
Unfortunately...not really. We have a small chance, and I'm talking small chance, on Tuesday morning. I'll put a 10% chance for the metro areas and a 20% chance out east. We have a weak front pushing south for the eastern half of the state. Most of that should be out of here by sunrise on Tuesday. After that, expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the 90s. Even if we do receive rainfall, it will be very minimal with little to no accumulation. El Nino is still expected to be a full force here in Texas. In fact, more updates keep coming out stating that this El Nino will be similar or greater than the El Nino of 1997. That was a great year for rainfall here in Texas. We received 46.79" that year. 5 of which came in the month of October. This year we've already picked up 41.38" so it looks as though we'll surpass that by a long shot -- once we get going again. Average yearly rainfall in ATX is 34.17".
The lakes are slowly lowering but still look pretty healthy given the fact we're about to jump into the winter months. Lake Travis sits at 665.56 ft above sea level and Lake Buchanan sits at 1005.44 ft above sea level. Lake Travis is 76% full and Buchanan is 66% full with a combined storage of 72%. Remember to stay water-wise. We don't have any real rain chances for the next several days. The long range models put a cold front into the area by the 21st - 22nd of next week that may bring some area-wide rainfall. Stay tuned...
TROPICS (National Hurricane Center, Atlantic Ops.):
All clear. No development expected within the next 5 days.
Enjoy your week ahead.
Meteorologist Collin Myers
Today's Record Temperatures